Повышение урожайности в АПК с учетом инноваций и других факторов

В статье подняты актуальные вопросы продовольственной безопасности страны при существующих санкциях. Трудности импортозамещения рассмотрены в рамках российского агропромышленного комплекса (АПК). Обозначены существующие проблемы в сельскохозяйственном секторе экономике и предложены пути их преодоления. Исследованы направления инноваций в сельском хозяйстве, эффективные технологии в АПК, а также факторы, сдерживающие их внедрение в производство. Даны рекомендации доведения инноваций до производства.The article raised topical issues of food security of the country under existing sanctions. Difficulties of import substitution were considered within the framework of the Russian agroindustrial complex (AIC). The article identified the existing problems in the agricultural sector of the economy and proposed ways to overcome them. The directions of innovations in agriculture, effective technologies in the agroindustrial complex, as well as the factors that inhibit their introduction into production are studied. There are given recommendations for bringing innovations to production

Estimating the number needed to treat from continuous outcomes in randomised controlled trials: methodological challenges and worked example using data from the UK Back Pain Exercise and Manipulation (BEAM) trial

Background Reporting numbers needed to treat (NNT) improves interpretability of trial results. It is unusual that continuous outcomes are converted to numbers of individual responders to treatment (i.e., those who reach a particular threshold of change); and deteriorations prevented are only rarely considered. We consider how numbers needed to treat can be derived from continuous outcomes; illustrated with a worked example showing the methods and challenges. Methods We used data from the UK BEAM trial (n = 1, 334) of physical treatments for back pain; originally reported as showing, at best, small to moderate benefits. Participants were randomised to receive 'best care' in general practice, the comparator treatment, or one of three manual and/or exercise treatments: 'best care' plus manipulation, exercise, or manipulation followed by exercise. We used established consensus thresholds for improvement in Roland-Morris disability questionnaire scores at three and twelve months to derive NNTs for improvements and for benefits (improvements gained+deteriorations prevented). Results At three months, NNT estimates ranged from 5.1 (95% CI 3.4 to 10.7) to 9.0 (5.0 to 45.5) for exercise, 5.0 (3.4 to 9.8) to 5.4 (3.8 to 9.9) for manipulation, and 3.3 (2.5 to 4.9) to 4.8 (3.5 to 7.8) for manipulation followed by exercise. Corresponding between-group mean differences in the Roland-Morris disability questionnaire were 1.6 (0.8 to 2.3), 1.4 (0.6 to 2.1), and 1.9 (1.2 to 2.6) points. Conclusion In contrast to small mean differences originally reported, NNTs were small and could be attractive to clinicians, patients, and purchasers. NNTs can aid the interpretation of results of trials using continuous outcomes. Where possible, these should be reported alongside mean differences. Challenges remain in calculating NNTs for some continuous outcomes

Measures and models for causal inference in cross-sectional studies: arguments for the appropriateness of the prevalence odds ratio and related logistic regression

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Several papers have discussed which effect measures are appropriate to capture the contrast between exposure groups in cross-sectional studies, and which related multivariate models are suitable. Although some have favored the Prevalence Ratio over the Prevalence Odds Ratio -- thus suggesting the use of log-binomial or robust Poisson instead of the logistic regression models -- this debate is still far from settled and requires close scrutiny.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>In order to evaluate how accurately true causal parameters such as Incidence Density Ratio (IDR) or the Cumulative Incidence Ratio (CIR) are effectively estimated, this paper presents a series of scenarios in which a researcher happens to find a preset ratio of prevalences in a given cross-sectional study. Results show that, provided essential and non-waivable conditions for causal inference are met, the CIR is most often inestimable whether through the Prevalence Ratio or the Prevalence Odds Ratio, and that the latter is the measure that consistently yields an appropriate measure of the Incidence Density Ratio.</p> <p>Summary</p> <p>Multivariate regression models should be avoided when assumptions for causal inference from cross-sectional data do not hold. Nevertheless, if these assumptions are met, it is the logistic regression model that is best suited for this task as it provides a suitable estimate of the Incidence Density Ratio.</p

Oral capecitabine as an alternative to i.v. 5-fluorouracil-based adjuvant therapy for colon cancer: safety results of a randomized, phase III trial

Background: Oral capecitabine achieves a superior response rate with an improved safety profile compared with bolus 5-fluorouracil-leucovorin (5-FU/LV) as first-line treatment for patients with metastatic colorectal cancer. We report here the results of a large phase III trial investigating adjuvant oral capecitabine compared with 5-FU/LV (Mayo Clinic regimen) in Dukes' C colon cancer. Patients and methods: Patients aged 18-75 years with resected Dukes' C colon carcinoma were randomized to receive 24 weeks of treatment with either oral capecitabine 1250 mg/m2 twice daily, days 1-14 every 21 days (n = 993), or i.v. bolus 5-FU 425 mg/m2 with i.v. leucovorin 20 mg/m2 on days 1-5, repeated every 28 days (n = 974). Results: Patients receiving capecitabine experienced significantly (P <0.001) less diarrhea, stomatitis, nausea/vomiting, alopecia and neutropenia, but more hand-foot syndrome than those receiving 5-FU/LV. Fewer patients receiving capecitabine experienced grade 3 or 4 neutropenia, febrile neutropenia/sepsis and stomatitis (P <0.001), although more experienced grade 3 hand-foot syndrome than those treated with 5-FU/LV (P <0.001). Capecitabine demonstrates a similar, favorable safety profile in patients aged <65 years or ≥65 years old. Conclusions: Based on its improved safety profile, capecitabine has the potential to replace 5-FU/LV as standard adjuvant treatment for patients with colon cancer. Efficacy results are expected to be available in 2004. Keywords: Adjuvant treatment, capecitabine, chemotherapy, colorectal cance

Lack of effect of lowering LDL cholesterol on cancer: meta-analysis of individual data from 175,000 people in 27 randomised trials of statin therapy

&lt;p&gt;Background: Statin therapy reduces the risk of occlusive vascular events, but uncertainty remains about potential effects on cancer. We sought to provide a detailed assessment of any effects on cancer of lowering LDL cholesterol (LDL-C) with a statin using individual patient records from 175,000 patients in 27 large-scale statin trials.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Methods and Findings: Individual records of 134,537 participants in 22 randomised trials of statin versus control (median duration 4.8 years) and 39,612 participants in 5 trials of more intensive versus less intensive statin therapy (median duration 5.1 years) were obtained. Reducing LDL-C with a statin for about 5 years had no effect on newly diagnosed cancer or on death from such cancers in either the trials of statin versus control (cancer incidence: 3755 [1.4% per year [py]] versus 3738 [1.4% py], RR 1.00 [95% CI 0.96-1.05]; cancer mortality: 1365 [0.5% py] versus 1358 [0.5% py], RR 1.00 [95% CI 0.93–1.08]) or in the trials of more versus less statin (cancer incidence: 1466 [1.6% py] vs 1472 [1.6% py], RR 1.00 [95% CI 0.93–1.07]; cancer mortality: 447 [0.5% py] versus 481 [0.5% py], RR 0.93 [95% CI 0.82–1.06]). Moreover, there was no evidence of any effect of reducing LDL-C with statin therapy on cancer incidence or mortality at any of 23 individual categories of sites, with increasing years of treatment, for any individual statin, or in any given subgroup. In particular, among individuals with low baseline LDL-C (&#60;2 mmol/L), there was no evidence that further LDL-C reduction (from about 1.7 to 1.3 mmol/L) increased cancer risk (381 [1.6% py] versus 408 [1.7% py]; RR 0.92 [99% CI 0.76–1.10]).&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Conclusions: In 27 randomised trials, a median of five years of statin therapy had no effect on the incidence of, or mortality from, any type of cancer (or the aggregate of all cancer).&lt;/p&gt

Quantitative trait loci conferring grain mineral nutrient concentrations in durum wheat 3 wild emmer wheat RIL population

Mineral nutrient malnutrition, and particularly deficiency in zinc and iron, afflicts over 3 billion people worldwide. Wild emmer wheat, Triticum turgidum ssp. dicoccoides, genepool harbors a rich allelic repertoire for mineral nutrients in the grain. The genetic and physiological basis of grain protein, micronutrients (zinc, iron, copper and manganese) and macronutrients (calcium, magnesium, potassium, phosphorus and sulfur) concentration was studied in tetraploid wheat population of 152 recombinant inbred lines (RILs), derived from a cross between durum wheat (cv. Langdon) and wild emmer (accession G18-16). Wide genetic variation was found among the RILs for all grain minerals, with considerable transgressive effect. A total of 82 QTLs were mapped for 10 minerals with LOD score range of 3.2–16.7. Most QTLs were in favor of the wild allele (50 QTLs). Fourteen pairs of QTLs for the same trait were mapped to seemingly homoeologous positions, reflecting synteny between the A and B genomes. Significant positive correlation was found between grain protein concentration (GPC), Zn, Fe and Cu, which was supported by significant overlap between the respective QTLs, suggesting common physiological and/or genetic factors controlling the concentrations of these mineral nutrients. Few genomic regions (chromosomes 2A, 5A, 6B and 7A) were found to harbor clusters of QTLs for GPC and other nutrients. These identified QTLs may facilitate the use of wild alleles for improving grain nutritional quality of elite wheat cultivars, especially in terms of protein, Zn and Fe

Comportamento de dois genótipos de milho cultivados em sistema de aléias preestabelecido com diferentes leguminosas arbóreas.

O cultivo em aléias tem sido recomendado como alternativa para a substituição da agricultura de corte e queima, no trópico úmido, devido à grande capacidade de produção de matéria orgânica e de reciclagem de nutrientes, mas algumas dúvidas quanto à sustentabilidade e à competição interespecífica são persistentes. O objetivo no trabalho foi avaliar a viabilidade da cultura do milho em um sistema de cultivo em aléias de leguminosas arbóreas. O delineamento experimental utilizado foi em blocos casualisados, com quatro repetições dos tratamentos: aléias de sombreiro (Clitoria fairchildiana), ingá (Inga edulis), guandu (Cajanus cajan) e leucena (Leucaena leucocephala) e uma testemunha sem aléias. Foram avaliadas a remobilização de carbono e nitrogênio, massa de grãos, massa de mil grãos e competição interespecífica entre as cultivares de milho e as leguminosas. A produção de grãos foi maior nas parcelas com C. fairchildiana e L. leucocephala. A produtividade do híbrido de milho foi superior à da variedade em todos os tratamentos. A produtividade e a massa de mil grãos de milho não são negativamente afetadas pela distância da linha da leguminosa arbórea. Esse estudo conclui que o sistema de aléias com leguminosas arbóreas é uma alternativa importante ao manejo sustentável dos agroecossistemas no tropico úmido. Além disso, nessa região a produtividade em grãos na cultura do milho é favorecida no sistema de aléias preeestabelecidas com as leguminosas arbóreas sombreiro, ingá e leucena e pela utilização de genótipos eficientes no aproveitamento do nitrogênio, cujo sincronismo entre a liberação e a absorção do N aplicado por meio das leguminosas deve ser aprimorado